The future of Google is not search
While Google has a lot of cash, the $3.2 billion that it paid for Nest was by no means an inconsequential sum. Google probably wouldn’t lose sleep if one of its smaller ($50-500 million) acquisitions had to be written off, but Nest is a biggy; Nest’s user-friendly brand of home automation is obviously something that Google is seriously interested in. Likewise, by picking up no less than eight robotics companies and becoming the world’s pre-eminent robotics company overnight, Google is definitely signalling that there will be Googlebots in our not-so-distant future. We can probably ignore Google’s smaller acquisitions for now (though given how much electricity Google’s data centers consume, I wouldn’t be surprised if it goes into the cheap/green energy sector).
While there is certainly some money to be made from selling smart home gadgets, Google is probably more interested in Nest because of its ability to gather vast amounts of information. Some might say that Google’s forte is in processing vast amounts of data (web crawling, tracking cookies, advertising spends), and turning it into valuable services and information. Imagine if every home in the US had a Nest thermostat that reported your usage patterns back to Google. If Google could process that data into usable analytics about how we use and heat our homes, it could be worth billions to the right companies.
It’s naive to think that Google will stick with just the Nest thermostat and smoke detector, too. I would be surprised if Nest isn’t working on some solution to turn the dumb devices in your home into smart devices that report their energy usage to a central hub. You can envision some kind of slim-line Nest plug, which then allows other devices to be plugged into it. This Nest plug would then measure the energy usage of whatever’s plugged into it, and connect to a central hub via WiFi. You would then be able to log into the central hub remotely to see how much energy your home is currently using — and, of course, you’d be able to turn plugs off, as well. Such a system could include timers and automation, too — maybe you set a space heater to turn on an hour before you get home (or maybe your Nest thermostat, which has already learnt that you like to keep your study warm, turns the heater on automatically before you get home).
With this kind of data, Google would know almost everything about our lives — which it could then easily turn into money, either via existing channels, such as targeted advertising, or by selling/using the information in novel ways (designing new gadgets/software, selling the information to broadcasters, publishers, supermarkets, etc.)
Then there’s the robots. There are two distinct directions that Google could take. The easy route — the tried and tested route — is industrial robotics. Robots that assemble cars and gadgets, Mars rovers, robots that debone hams at high speed, robots that automate data centers (pulling out dead hard drives, slotting in new servers as they’re needed, and so on). The harder route is consumer robotics: The science-fictional robot that rolls stealthily around your house and asks, at just the right moment, “Sir, would you like some help with that?” This would be an entirely new and unproven sector, but the potential profits (and again, the massive amounts of data) from being the first company to popularize the in-home robot make the risk worthwhile. Such Googlebots would obviously tie in nicely with Google’s other Nest-oriented home automation efforts, too.
The Google of the future, then, more than just ruling your online world, might also be present throughout your home — and surely the workplace will follow quickly after that. If Google can make lots of money by being omnipresent in the virtual space, imagine what it’ll be able to do once it powers your home, office, and car. Imagine waking up, and instead of checking Google Now on your phone to see your day’s schedule, a Googlebot has already filled the bathtub and picked out suitable clothing. You’ll go downstairs, and because your wife was googling the day before about having hot flashes, perhaps your Nest thermostat has already turned the AC on. A Googlebot might tell you, over breakfast (which it prepared pursuant to your searches yesterday), the day’s important news. Then, of course, you’ll hop in your self-driving Google car and head to work.
So, there’s your answer to the titular question: Is Google a search company? Yes, for now, but over the next few years it will become something more — something far greater and much more complete. If you thought Google already had a fairly firm grip on your life, and knew slightly too much about your habits, desires, and aspirations, just wait until it also powers your car, house, and office. It won’t be the Google Search Engine any more; it’ll just be the Google Engine, and despite that slight nagging feeling that we’re doing something wrong, we’ll continue to feed it with anything and everything because the rewards from having an almost human-like machine intelligence watch over us, and make our decisions for us, will be impossible to resist.
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